Asia Times
Southeast Asia
By M K Bhadrakumar
Dec 6, 2011
If the incumbent United States Secretary of State were Henry Kissinger and if Myanmar were China, or if world politics were caught in the throes of a Cold War, Hillary Clinton would have probably paid an official visit to Bangkok, and after having eaten red-hot Thai chicken curry for dinner on Tuesday, would have feigned tummy upset, with her spokesman dissimulating that the doctor advised her to rest through Wednesday and Thursday – whilst she took off unseen for Naypyidaw.
Indeed, the perspective on Clinton’s visit to Myanmar needs to begin with the way she undertook it in a trail of publicity. Kissinger expected to hold substantive talks in Beijing. and he estimated that secrecy was the need of the hour. He knew it also suited the Chinese leadership, as the two adversaries, who harmed each other so much, would combine forces.
That a priori understanding was lacking in the present case. Again, Myanmar, though a large-enough country of 60 million people (in an area the size of France and Britain combined) and a neighbor to China, is not China’s adversary, and is ultimately irrelevant to the breathtaking saga of the US-China relationship.
Put differently, China’s rise is the most profound shift in global power in all of the past five or six centuries since the Islamic world gave way to the West, and it is not something Myanmar hopes to slow down.
Nor was the world in the middle of a cold war when Clinton arrived in Myanmar. Indeed, it is far from inevitable that a cold war may erupt. China is not an ideological adversary but happens to be a street-smart practitioner of the global market system created by Great Britain in the 19th century and reinforced by America through another century. It is neither in China’s interest nor in the US’s to destroy that system through conflict or war.
‘Flickers of progress’
The hard-boiled rulers of Myanmar can comprehend these fundamentals. Just ahead of Clinton’s arrival, Commander of the Armed Forces Min Aung Hlaing departed on a visit to China. This is the second high-ranking visit from Myanmar in the past six months. In May, Myanmar President Thein Sein went to China for his first state visit after assuming office in March.
Clinton got a taste of Myanmar’s “nativist traditions”, wondering whether Min Aung Hlaing’s tour of China was a choreographed sequence with a moral attached to it. While Clinton told Thein Shein she was “encouraged” by Myanmar’s recent policy changes, the president merely hailed the “new chapter” in relations with US and said her visit would prove a “milestone”, which was an accurate statement of fact. (Clinton is only the second US secretary of state to visit Myanmar, after a gap of 50 years.) If the American side intended that Clinton’s visit was a reward for Myanmar rulers’ reforms (”flickers of progress”, as President Barack Obama put it) and an incentive for them to “do more”, the latter didn’t make any promises.
Clinton was accorded a distinctly low-key welcome, with just a handful of officials to receive her at the tarmac, led by Deputy Foreign Minister Myo Myint. Indeed, she set for herself a modest goal, which was to “determine for myself and on behalf of our government what is the intention of the current government with respect to continuing reforms, both political and economic.”
However, there was something very meaningful the Myanmar government conveyed by scheduling the official visit by the Prime Minister of Belarus, Mikhail Myasnikovich, in the very same week as the US secretary of state’s. Thus, Clinton arrived at an airport that was decorated with a massive red banner welcoming the leader of Belarus, a country her predecessor, Condoleeza Rice, once called “the last true remaining dictatorship in the heart of Europe”.
Like Myanmar, Belarus too is subject to US sanctions. As Clinton’s motorcade passed through Myanmar’s empty streets, she could see that no one got carried away. She said later she was keeping back concessions to the regime, promising only to “match actions with actions”, and the onus is on them to extract the big prize.
Unsurprisingly, Clinton’s meeting with opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi took the breath away. Great rhetoric followed. Yet, the government’s reforms so far were induced neither by the US sanctions nor the quiet “constructive engagement” that Myanmar’s Asian neighbors opted for. As the BBC’s South Asia analyst Marie Lall succinctly put it,
“The new government needs to be given credit for re-assessing the country’s position in light of three phenomena: Burma wants the ASEAN [Association of Southeast Asians] chair in 2014, needs the ASEAN free trade area in 2015 for its economy to thrive, and the current government wants to win the 2015 elections.
“Overarching these objectives though is the major interest of assuring the security and stability of the state which is now thought best achieved through reform rather than repression … Burma is not about to turn into a Western-style democracy, but Nay Pyi Taw has set out on a strong path for reform, which will benefit the Burmese people. The first priority for the government is now to set the economy right… so as to improve the living standards of ordinary Burmese. The government is well aware of the economic problems the country is facing. If the government is allowed to continue on its present path change will be gradual but life-changing for those living inside the country.”
The last day of Clinton’s visit was overshadowed by reports of the initialing of a pact by the representatives of the Shan State Army South and the local government at the state capital of Taunggyi. The army-backed regime made sure the event got registered as the outcome of its peace initiative forming part of a series of reformist moves initiated in the past year.
Belarus blues
Actually, a dispassionate look at Myanmar’s decision to suspend the construction of the Myitsone dam would reveal the complexity of the emergent matrix. A momentum is surely building in Myanmar. But how far Washington is responsible for it or is coping with it is the big question.
Beijing protested loudly over Myitsone. Even more uncharacteristic was Beijing’s public allegation repeated ever so often that the US played a role in persuading Thein Sein to block the dam and in playing up the protests against its construction. In the East, you don’t say things loudly – except for a good purpose.
The Chinese protests seem exaggerated, since other dams are still being planned and there hasn’t been the slightest whiff of a backlash against the overall Chinese presence. Trade between China and Myanmar touched US$5.3 billion in 2010 and China remains Myanmar’s biggest foreign investor with $15.8 billion in investments.
China’s Vice President Xi Jinping received Min Aung Hlaing last week in Beijing. Xi said, “The friendship forged by the leaders of the older generations has endured changes in the international arena … China will work with Myanmar to further bolster the comprehensive strategic partnership of cooperation,” he said. Xi proposed the two military forces to enhance exchange and deepen cooperation. Interestingly, Xi advised Myanmar to “properly settle problems and maintain a sound momentum of development”.
Arguably, China could create strategic space for Myanmar to negotiate better with the US. The road ahead for the US is going to be tricky. But Washington is not new to this predicament in the post-cold war setting with its overall global influence on the wane.
In Kyrgyzstan, after staging a successful color revolution in 2005, the US remains the bronze medalist. Former Kyrgyz president Roza Otunbayeva was portrayed as “moderately pro-Western”, but she also conceded that Kyrgyzstan’s future ultimately lies with Russia because of the country’s economic and security concerns and its long history with Russia.
In Uzbekistan, where the US abandoned the punishing sanctions regime, China still does remarkably well. The real gainers have been the Central Asian states, which gradually mastered the art of accommodating the vital interests and core concerns of competing big powers and getting something substantial in return.
Washington is left with no choice but to dismantle the sanctions regime on Myanmar. Clinton announced that the US will no more veto the aid packages of the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund. But the game is about finding the pretext to dismantle the sanctions regime without making it appear that the US is keen on Myanmar’s resources or the pushback against China. In short, the US should accept that nationalist Myanmar makes an interesting ASEAN country – beautiful and bountiful with a lucrative market although politically odious now and then.
Even assuming Aung San Suu Kyi may lead her country in a near future – which of course isn’t a foregone conclusion in a country as diverse and a society as plural – the matrix doesn’t change.
Ambassador M K Bhadrakumar was a career diplomat in the Indian Foreign Service. His assignments included the Soviet Union, South Korea, Sri Lanka, Germany, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Uzbekistan, Kuwait and Turkey.
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